Standard Chartered on Wednesday raised its estimate of India’s current account deficit (CAD) as a share of gross domestic product for 2023, citing rising commodity prices and chances of slowing exports.
The Bank of England raised its forecast for the Canadian dollar for the fiscal year ending March 2023 to 3.8% of India’s gross domestic product from its previous estimate of 3.0% – higher than those of peers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Nomura.
The Canadian dollar in India came in at 1.2% of GDP last year.
Standard Chartered analysts wrote that a slight dip in commodity prices since the start of this year is likely to help the average trade deficit of about $23 billion – $25 billion in the next two quarters, but it won’t cause a significant decline in the overall trajectory. the report.
They added that a significant drop in coal and crude oil prices that settle at around $90 a barrel would bring the trade deficit below $20 billion, although the likelihood of that happening is very low.
India’s trade deficit narrowed slightly to $28.7 billion last month from a record $30 billion in July.
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